中国能源消耗及利用效率、碳排放与产业投资结构的灰色关联分析

Gray Correlation Analysis of Energy Consumption and Utilization Rate, Carbon Emission and Industrial Investment Structure in China

从产业投资结构角度出发,探讨其与能源消耗及利用效率、碳排放的关系,有利于正确把握产业投资结构对能源消耗及利用效率、碳排放不同的影响方向与程度。以中国2003—2010年全国三次产业固定资产投资额、碳排放总量、单位GDP消耗的碳、单位GDP消耗的能源做灰色关联分析,研究发现,不论是对能源消耗和碳排放量,第二产业投资与能源消耗和碳排放量的相关性最大,而在碳排放利用率的相关分析中发现,第二产业投资与单位GDP消耗的碳,单位GDP消耗的能源相关系数最低,第三产业投资对能源利用效率的影响并不是优势因素。在此基础上,探讨了产业投资结构的优化和降低碳排放,提高能源利用效率的策略,以期能够合理引导中国产业投资结构,降低能源消耗,转变经济发展方式,实现国家经济低碳发展。

From the perspective of industrial investment structure, we discussed the relationship among energy consumption, utili- zation efficiency, carbon emission and industrial investment structure, so that we can understand the directions and degrees of influence caused by industrial investment correctly. In this paper, we analyzed the relationship using the method of gray correlation model and the data of industrial investment proportion in total investment in fixed assets, total carbon emissions, per GDP carbon emissions and per GDP energy consumption in China from 2003 to 2010. There are three main results as follows ： The second industrial investment is the main factor causing the carbon emission and energy consumption ; The second industrial investment has the lowest relationship with per GDP carbon emissions and per GDP energy consumption; The third industrial investment is not the dominant factor influencing the energy efficiency. On this basis, strategies of industrial investment structure regulation were proposed for the optimization of industrial investment structure, carbon emissions reduction and energy efficiency improvement in the future in order to reasonably guide the struc- ture of industrial investment, effectively reduce the consumption of energy, transform the economic development mode, and finally a- chieve the goal the low-carbon economy in China.