摘要
通过对城市轨道交通历史事故进行分析,提出基于复杂网络的城市轨道交通运营安全影响要素网络模型,以此为基点分析不同影响要素之间的关联,构建基于涌现的事故演化过程网;通过对该网动态特性研究,建立城市轨道交通运营系统安全程度动态评判模型;利用Matlab仿真软件,以列车脱轨影响要素演化过程为算例,对提出的模型进行验证。结果表明,系统的安全程度评判结果与实际情况吻合,验证了用复杂网络理论进行影响要素分析事故形成的可行性。
By analysis of the previous urban rail transit accidents, the accident influence elements network model of urban rail transit was put forward. With the model, the correlation and interaction mechanism of different elements were considered. Then the accidents influence elements evolution network was established. After analyzing the emergence-oriented network evolution mechanism, the dynamic safety evaluation model of the urban rail transit operating system was established. Lastly,using the Matlab simulation software and taking train derailment accident evolution analysis as an example, the feasibility of the proposed method and novelty of complex network application were verified. It turns out that the model can successfully evaluate system safety, which is consistent with actual conditions.
出处
《铁道学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第4期1-8,共8页
Journal of the China Railway Society
基金
国家科技支撑计划(2011BAG01B02)
北京交通大学轨道交通控制与安全国家重点实验室自主研究课题(RCS2011ZZ004)
关键词
城市轨道交通
复杂网络
系统熵
涌现
urban rail transit
complex network
system entropy
emergence
