1979—2011年东亚地区大气臭氧层变化趋势分析

A trend analysis of atmospheric ozonosphere during 1979—2011 over the East Asia

采用1979—2011年欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的ERA-Interim的臭氧总量资料和分层资料,利用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall检验等方法,分析了东亚地区臭氧总量及对流层、平流层臭氧的变化趋势.研究结果表明:①1979—2011年东亚地区臭氧总量总体来看呈现下降趋势.进一步将所考时段分为2期来看,臭氧总量在II期(1994—2011)稍有上升趋势,但尚未达到Ⅰ期(1979—1993)的平均臭氧总量水平,故认为东亚地区臭氧总量在21世纪初的恢复尚不明显;②东亚臭氧总量33年中的突变点是1984年,显著下降时间是1986年以后;③对东亚对流层-平流层的4个代表层的研究发现,4个层次的臭氧质量分数年际变化均呈下降趋势,其中臭氧质量分数下降速率最快的层次是10 hPa,从低层到高层,臭氧质量分数的下降速率呈现"快-慢-快"的变化特点.

Based on the latest version ERA-Interim data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) from 1979 to 2011,including the total ozone and different-level ozone data,in light of climate tendency rate and Mann-Kendall test and other methods,we’ve studied the evolution trends of total ozone and troposphere-stratospheric ozone content in East Asia.The results show that overall the total ozone amount in East Asia presented a downtrend from 1979 to 2011.When the studied period is divided into two phases,phase Ⅰ has an evident downtrend,and the total ozone of phase Ⅱ(1994—2011) does not reach the level of phase Ⅰ(1979—1993),although it has a slight increasing trend.It implies that in East Asian region,the ozone recovery trend is not obvious up to now.From 1979 to 2011,the catastrophic change of total ozone started from 1984,and the time of the significantly decreasing was after 1986.By selecting the 4 levels which respectively represent the troposphere and stratosphere,different levels ozone trend have been investigated.The results indicate that the ozone variation for 4 layers have a descending trend in East Asia.The maximum decrease rate is at 10 hPa,and the decrease rate presents the characteristics of 'fast-slow-fast' from low level to high level.