预期、投资推动与中国通货膨胀

The Expectation, Investment and China's Inflation

本文构建了中国特征的新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线,考察了我国通货膨胀预期性质及投资对通货膨胀的影响。通过理论分析和实证检验,本文认为:我国通货膨胀特性符合新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线,兼具前瞻型预期和后顾型预期特征。从通货膨胀表征来看,其中前瞻型的通胀预期和后顾型通胀惯性预期对通胀影响最为显著,投资的影响次之。从我国通胀预期的特征和投资推动的具体影响来看,建立公开透明的信息披露机制和改变政府主导投资模式可以切实有效地抑制通货膨胀。

The article constructs the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Chinese characteristics,and studies the impact of the nature of Chinese inflation expectations an investment on the inflation.Through theoretical analysis and empirical test,the article argues: the nature of China's inflation is consistent with the New Keynesian Phillips Curve,combing the backward-looking adaptively expectations and forward-looking rational expectations.From the characterization of inflation,the inertia of forward-looking inflation expectation and backward-looking inflation expectation have the most significant impact on the inflation,followed by investment.Judging from the specific impact of the characteristics of China's inflation expectation and investment,the establishment of an open and transparent information disclosure mechanism and the removal of government-led investment model can efficiently and effectively curb the inflation.