基于私人部门债务通缩视角的欧债危机成因新解

New Explanations of the Causes of European Debt Crisis from the Perspective of Private Sector Debt Deflation

2007年以来欧债危机的爆发有两大基础:一是上世纪七八十年代以来欧美金融市场的自由化、证券化,以及随之而来的银行加杠杆;二是1990年代以来,主要发达国家私人部门的负债水平迅速攀升。这两大变化是欧债危机的重要背景。以美国次贷危机为触发点,欧洲银行业爆发了流动性危机,私人部门随之发生了长周期的债务通缩。为了对抗通缩螺旋,政府通过救赎银行承担起了债务,进而导致主权债务危机浮出水面。因此,私人部门的债务通缩在这一演变过程中起到了关键作用且决定了危机的走向。

There are two major bases for the outbreak of the European debt crisis since 2007: one is the liberalization of financial markets and securitization in Europe and United States since the seventies and eighties of the last century,with the subsequent rising leverage;the other is the rapidly climbing debt level of private sectors in major developed countries since the 1990s.These two changes are the important backdrop of the European debt crisis.The U.S.Subprime mortgage crisis was the trigger point of the outbreak of liquidity crisis in the European banking sector,thus leading to the long-period debt deflation in the private sector.In order to combat deflation spiral,the governments assumed the debt by baling out the banks,which led to the surface of the sovereign debt crisis.Therefore,the private sector debt deflation in this evolution played a key role and determined the direction of the crisis.