基于人民币汇率形成机制改革的我国外汇期货市场研究

The Research of China's Foreign Exchange Futures Market based on the Reform of RMB Exchange Rate Formation Mechanism

本文从三个层面论述外汇期货市场推出势在必行。首先,宏观经济环境变化引致人民币汇率双向波动预期,为外汇期货推出提供了更成熟的市场条件。其次,中长期内人民币均衡汇率水平也将随着宏观经济的变化而波动,建设外汇期货市场以丰富外汇交易品种,为实体经济提供多种规避汇率风险的工具。第三,积极稳妥发展外汇期货市场,争夺人民币定价权,符合国家利益。

The article argues that the launch of foreign exchange futures market is imperative from three levels.First,the change of the macroeconomic environment leads to the two-way volatility expectation of RMB exchange rate,providing a more mature market condition for the launch of foreign exchange futures.Second,the RMB equilibrium exchange rate in the medium to long term will also change with macroeconomic fluctuations.Constructing foreign exchange futures market will enrich the varieties of foreign exchange transactions,and provide a variety of tools to avoid exchange rate risk for the real economy.Third,to actively and steadily develop the foreign exchange futures market and to compete for RMB pricing right are in the interest of the country.