基于Lowry模型的北京市城市空间结构模拟

Simulation of urban spatial structure in Beijing based on Lowry model

以Lowry模型为理论支撑,以北京市发展现状为研究对象,从模型构建、参数设置和情景模拟三个方面探索Lowry模型框架在城市空间结构研究中的应用。①基于杜能区位论,构建以区域地租总额最大化为目标函数,以北京市经济发展现状、现有土地资源供给为约束条件的线性规划模型。②以北京市2010年投入产出表、2011年北京市统计年鉴、2010年北京市企业调查数据等数据来源为支撑,完成模型相关参数的设置。③以北京市市域为研究对象,以乡镇街道办为基本研究单元,基于对北京市基本行业分布格局分析,构建模型的情景约束条件。④模拟分析了在北京市基本行业空间格局框架确定情况下的城市产业、居住空间分布特征,总结了模型的结构启示及模型的模拟启示。本文不仅丰富了模型框架的内涵,而且在实际应用中检验了模型的技术流程和分析能力,为基于Lowry模型的城市空间结构分析框架形成奠定基础,拓展了国内城市空间结构研究的研究视角。

We use the Lowry model as the theoretical basis and the development situation of Beijing as the guidance to explore the application of Lowry model in the research of urban spatial structure in the aspects, which are the model building, parameter setting and scenario simulation. Firstly, in the process of building this model, we used Thunen location theory as the theoretical basis, the maximization of the regional total rent as the objective function, the development situation and the land resources supply situation of Beijing as the constraint conditions. Secondly, in the model parameter setting, we used the Beijing input-output table （2010）, the Beijing Statistical Yearbook （2011）, the Beijing enterprises survey data （2010）, and other data sources to set the model parameters. Thirdly, we completed the computing in scenario simulation by taking Beijing as a research object, the township as the basic research units. Based on the analysis of the basic industry distribution pattern, we constructed the scene constraints of the model. Finally, based on the spatial pattern of basic industries, we simulated the distribution of urban industries and living space, and summarized the enlightenment of model structure and model calculation. This paper not only enriched the connotation of the model framework, but also tested the technical process and analysis ability of the model in the actual application. This work laid the foundation for the formation of the urban space structure analysis framework based on Lowry model, and expanded the research perspective of domestic urban structure study.