重庆市2008—2011年结核病疾病空间分布及影响因素分析

Analysis of spatial distribution and influencing factors of tuberculosis in Chongqing from 2008 to 2011

目的应用空间自相关分析以及空间回归模型研究重庆市结核病的疾病空间分布特征及影响因素。方法收集2008年1月—2011年12月重庆市40个区(县)的结核病相关信息和数据,采用GeoDa_0.9-5-i软件进行空间自相关分析和空间回归分析。结果 2008—2011年重庆市结核病年发病率全局Moran'sⅠ值分别为0.310、0.399、0.327和0.306,提示各年份重庆市结核病发病率具有空间正相关性;在空间回归分析中,城镇失业率与重庆市结核病发病相关(Z=2.150,P=0.032)。结论 2008—2011年重庆市结核病的空间分布为非随机分布,存在着明显的聚集区域;在空间层面上,城镇失业率为重庆市结核病发病的影响因素。

Objective To analyze the spatial distribution and influencing factors of tuberculosis in Chongqing using spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial autoregressive model. Methods The data on tuberculosis of 40 districts （counties） in Chongqing from December 2008 December to 2011 were collected, and spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial regressive analysis were performed using GeoDa _ 0. 9-5 -i software. Results The global Moran＇s I values of tuberculosis in Chongqing from 2008 to 2011 were O. 310, O. 399, 0. 327, and O. 306, respectively, which indicated that there was a spatial positive correlation among each year in the incidences of tuberculosis in Chongqing. Spatial regressive analysis revealed that the incidence of tuberculosis in Chongqing was associated with the unemployment rate of urban area （Z = 2. 150, P = 0. 032）. Conclusion The spatial clusterings of tuberculosis are found in Chongqing from 2008 to 2011, and the incidence of tuberculosis in Chongqing is associated with the unemployment rate of urban area at the spatial level.