Kriging插值在中国结核病分布中的应用

Application of Kriging Interpolation Analysis in the Distribution of Tuberculosis in China

目的应用克里格（Kriging）插值研究中国结核病的空间分布特征，为结核病的防控提供科学依据。方法收集第4次全国结核病流行病学抽样调查资料，建立相关数据库。第4次流调共调查365097人，发现活动性肺结核病患者1340例，活动性肺结核患病率367．03／10万（1340／365097）。应用Kriging插值研究中国活动性肺结核患病率的空间分布特征。结果（1）半变异函数表明，中国活动性肺结核患病率由空间自相关引起的空间变异性中等，C0／（C0＋C）=66．14％。（2）中国活动性肺结核患病率的Kriging插值研究，显示出中国活动性肺结核患病率的空间分布不均衡。结论利用Kriging插值等空间分析技术可以通过抽样调查数据对全国活动性肺结核患病率进行总体估计。

Objective Application of Kriging interpolation analysis to study the spatial distribution of the prevalence rate of active pulmonary tuberculosis in China and to provide scientific basis for prevention tuberculosis. Methods Data were collected from the fourth national TB epidemiological surveys, relevant databases were set up.A total of 365 097 people were investigated in the fourth survey, 1340 active pulmonary TB patients were found.The prevalence rate of active pulmonary tuberculosis in China was 367.03/100 000 （ 1340/365 097） .Kriging interpolation analysis was applied to analyze the spatial distribution of the prevalence rate of active pulmonary tuberculosis. Results （ 1 ） The semivariogram analysis showed that there was moderate spatial autocorrelation of the prevalence rate of active pulmonary tuberculosis in China C0/ （C0＋C） =66.14%. （2） The spatial distribution of the prevalence rate of active pulmonary tuberculosis was unbalanced in China by the disjunctive Kriging interpolation analysis. Conclusion Kriging interpolation analysis was helpful in making overall estimate of nationwide prevalence of active pulmonary TB through sampling survey data.