航运企业现金流压力的周期性与行业传导性分析

航运业是资金密集型行业,具有周期性、高风险等特征。从宏观角度看,航运市场受宏观经济周期因素影响较大,这些因素通过影响航运业供求关系来影响航运企业的财务状况;从产业链角度看,航运业的产业关联复杂,从而财务压力在企业之间和产业链各环节间也存在传导性。本文以中国A股上市航运企业现金流状况的宏观周期性特征和产业链局部传导效应为研究对象,考察了一些具有重要影响的因素,包括航运金融合约特征、产业链传导性、宏观经济指标等,并进行了量化分析,结果发现BDI是进出口总额增长率的原因,而其他指标之间不具有因果关系。

The shipping industry is a capital-intensive industry with periodic and high-risk characteristics. From a macro-perspective, macroeconomic cycle factors influence supply-demand relationship of the industry, and then affect the financial conditions of shipping companies. From the perspective of industrial chains, the financial pressure of shipping enterprises has conductive effects between enterprises due to the complex industrial correlation. In this paper, with quantitative analysis, we investigate the macro periodical features of cash flow of the listed shipping companies in China＇ s A-share market and local conductive effects of industrial chains, and explore some factors including contract features, conduction of industry chain and macro-indicators of shipping industry, which concludes that BDI is the reason of the total export-import volume growth and other indexes have no cause-and-effect relationship.