摘要
林业投资项目具有初期投资高、回收周期性长、未来现金流量不确定性大等特点,传统的投资决策评估方法不能满足科学评价林业投资项目价值的要求。鉴于此,本文引入了复合期权理论,深入分析了林业投资项目在不同阶段蕴含的实物期权类型,并运用二叉树定价方法对林业项目中的阶段性复合期权进行价值分析,阐明了不确定性和管理灵活性能增加项目的实际价值。
The traditional investment analysis method is insufficient for a scientific and reasonable assessment on the forestry investment projects, due to high initial investment, long payback period and high uncertainty of cash flow. Based on that, the paper introduces the compound option theory to explore different real option types of the forestry investment projects during different lifetime periods, applies the binary tree pricing model to assess the values of the compound options, and then concludes that uncertainty and flexibility on management could add real values to forestry investment projects.
出处
《企业经济》
北大核心
2013年第4期173-177,共5页
Enterprise Economy
关键词
林业投资项目
期权类型
复合期权
二叉树定价
forestry investment
real options
compound options
binary tree pricing
