南京都市区人口空间扩张与多中心化

Population expansion and polycentric development of Nanjing city in a period of hyper-growth

20世纪90年代以来,中国进入了前所未有的快速城市化阶段,大城市人口增长和空间演变剧烈,值得进行深入研究。以南京市为研究对象,先采用地理图形分析方法对都市区人口空间扩张过程进行了分析,后又采用数学模型方法对都市区人口分布多中心化趋势进行了系统研究。结果显示:在总人口持续快速增长的背景下,南京都市区人口高密度空间已延伸到近郊区,且远郊区中的区县政府驻地和一些优先开发区域的人口密度也已很高;城市人口空间分布已出现多中心化趋势,除了老城区北部的山西路已发育成除市中心新街口之外的人口次中心以外,郊区人口集聚最强的热点——河西新城区的万达广场也有望发育成另一个人口次中心。

Since the 1990s, China has been entering into a hyper-growth period, and urbanization in China is developing rapidly. Many large cities in China are also undergoing significant population growth and thus their spatial structures have been changed a lot. Previous studies showed that a few large cities had stepped into suburbanization process. For example, development in cities of Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou tends to form a polycentric pattern. However, case studies of other Chinese large cities have not been unfolded yet. It is very worth to explore more Chinese large cities for geographical scholars with the perspectives of population growth and spatial structure evolution. Based on existing theory and analysis method, this paper takes Nanjing city as a case study. The paper firstly analyzes the population spatial expansion process in Nanjing city by using geographical analysis methods, including street zoning method and circle division method. Then it simulates the polycentric development of urban population distribution through statistical models. The results show that： along with the total population growth, Nanjing＇s high population density areas have extended to inner suburban areas, forming a circled spatial expanding approach, which is the result of natural urban population growth. At the same time, the population densities of district-governments＇ seats and prioritized development areas in outer suburban areas also become very high, forming a fog-jumping spatial expanding approach. Population growth in these places has a close relationship with the government regulations and policies. The government-led population growth in urban China is different from that in edge city, suburban magnetic center and rural secondary employment center in the Western countries. Moreover, we also find that population spatial distribution in Nanjing has also been experiencing a tendency of polycentric development. Except the downtown area, Shanxi Road Street has become a population growth center, and the Wanda Plaza of Hexi New City Zone is becoming another population growth hot spot as well. This paper makes a good foundation forward to summarizing population spatial evolution theory in Chinese large city. Besides, it also provides some important experiential evidences for levels of government on optimization and regulation of Nanjing city＇s population distribution.