中国制造业企业的进入退出与生产率动态演化

China’s Manufacturing Firms’Entry-exit and Dynamic Evolution of TFP

本文采用1998—2007年中国制造业企业的微观数据对企业进入与退出的特征及其与全要素生产率动态演化的关系进行了系统性的实证研究。研究发现:中国制造业企业具有很高的进入率与退出率,并且均随着企业规模的增大而下降;新进入企业是各年份企业的主要构成来源,但新进入企业的持续期较短,同时进入与退出企业的规模均相对较小。在平均生产率的排序关系上,进入企业明显高于退出企业,但两者的生产率均低于存活企业;同时,新进入企业的存活概率随着进入年限的增长而下降,初始生产率水平越高的企业越不容易退出市场。实证研究还表明,存在显著的市场选择效应促使生产率较低的企业退出市场,新企业在进入之后通过学习效应实现了自身生产率的快速增长,而退出企业则在退出市场前面临显著的"死亡阴影"效应。最后,企业更替对制造业生产率增长具有重要的直接影响。此外,它还通过市场竞争效应对存活企业生产率的提高产生显著的间接促进作用。

Using China＇ s manufacturing firm-level micro data from 1998 to 2007, this paper has a systematic empirical study on the characteristics of firm entry-exit and its relationship with TFP dynamic evolution. Results find that：Firm entry and exit rate in China＇ s manufacturing seem quite high, and they decline with firm size. The new entering firms are main composition sources of each year enterprises in the sample, but the duration of new entering firms is quite short, meanwhile the size of entering firm and exiting firm is relatively small. In the sorting of average productivity, entering firm is higher than exiting firm, but both are lower than surviving firm. At the same time, the survival probability of new entering firms do decline as the entering years grow, and the higher initial TFP of the firm, the lower rate for it to exit subsequently. The empirical results also show that：There exists significant market selection effect which forces the less efficient firms to exit, after entering into the market, new firms achieve a rapid productivity growth through learning effect, while the exiting firm faces significant ＂ shadow of death＂ effect. Finally, Firm turnover has an important direct influence on manufacturing TFP growth,moreover, it also has a significant indirect role in promoting surviving firms＇ TFP growth though the market competition effect. This paper helps to properly understand the power source of China＇ s manufacturing TFP growth on the firm level.