利率市场化对货币政策有效性和经济结构调整的影响

The Effectiveness of Interest Rate Liberalization

本文通过构建、校准和模拟Stockman(1981)现金先行动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE),解释、分析和预测利率完全放开后,名义存款利率上升对我国宏观经济及宏观经济结构所产生的影响。模型的稳态方程、脉冲响应和数值模拟分析结果表明,名义存款利率上升通过提高存款实际利率和企业资本边际成本将有效抑制投资和资本存量增长,提升消费占GDP比重,从而有利于改善经济结构并促进经济可持续发展;在面对外部冲击时,利率上升可以减少宏观经济波动;货币政策冲击对实体经济影响的持续性增强,货币政策利率传导渠道更加通畅;利率上升将抑制投资并对宏观经济带来负面冲击的担心,并没有得到模型的支持。本文认为,今后应坚定不移地稳步推进利率市场化改革。

By building, calibrating and simulating a DSGE model based on Stockman（ 1981 ）Cash in Advance （CIA）, we explain, analysis and predict the macro-economy and economic structure outcomes of interest rate liberalization in China. The model＇ s steady state, impulse responses and simulation results show that higher real deposit rate and capital marginal cost will suppress investment and capital stock growth, increase the consumption ratio in GDP, which improves the economic structure and promote sustainable development; increasing interest rate can offset fluctuation facing shocks; the persistence of real economy to the reaction of monetary policy enhances, which means a better interest rate channel. We won＇ t worry about the negative effects on investments and economy as the model shows. We should steadily promote the interest rate liberalization reform, update traditional development concepts, promote capital efficiency and consumption role in economic growth with the interest rate liberalization, strengthen the price lever in monetary policy and realize a sustainable healthy development of China＇ s economy.