中国不同经济增长阶段碳排放影响因素研究

A Study on Influence Factors of Carbon Emissions under Different Economic Growth Stages in China

本文运用基于LMDI的"两层完全分解法"对中国1994—2008年的碳排放量进行分解,从产业结构的角度探究了六大产业部门对碳排放的贡献,分析了能源结构、能源强度、产业结构和总产值四大因素对碳排放的影响。结果表明:(1)根据能源强度和总产值的变化特点,可将1994—2008年划分为五个经济增长阶段。(2)从各产业对各阶段CO2排放量的影响来看,除"高效率+低产值"阶段(1995—1998)外,工业部门对CO2排放量的助长贡献为最大;综合来看,交通邮政部门对CO2排放量的助长贡献次之,其他产业部门对CO2排放量的助长贡献较小。(3)从各分解因素对各阶段CO2排放量的影响来看,总产值和产业结构为第一、第二助长因素,能源强度和能源结构为第一、第二制约因素。因此,本文给出了注重产业间、产业内均衡发展,引进先进技术、提高能源利用率和不断开发清洁能源、扩大使用范围的政策建议及不同阶段的具体措施。

The LMDI method is used to decompose the carbon emissions from 1994 to 2008 in China and explore the contribution of the six major industries to it from the perspective of the industrial structure. The influence of four factors to carbon emissions, such as energy structure, energy intensity, industrial structure and total production are also studied. The conclusions are ： （ 1 ） The period can be divided into five stages according to the variation properties of energy intensity and total production. （2） Industry sector made biggest contribution to the growth of carbon emissions, except the ＂ high efficiency and low yields＂ stage （1995-1998）. On the whole, the postal department and transportation sector made second contribution to the growth of carbon emissions, other industrial sectors made less contributions. （3） The total production and the energy structure are the first and the second factors to the growth of carbon emissions, while energy intensity and energy structure are the first and the second factors to its reduction. Therefore, this paper gave the policy proposals of the balanced development of inter-industry and intra-industry, introducing advanced technology to improve the efficiency of energy utilization, continuously developing clean energy and expanding its scope of use. Some concrete measures are provided for each stage.