摘要
在利用气象模型,考虑风速、降雨率、线路潮流、线路的隐性故障率等多种因素的基础上,提出了一种复杂的输电线路运行可靠性分析模型,并利用经典的蒙特卡罗分析方法进行了模拟,对系统的长期规划、短期运行调度都有着积极意义。给出了基于中国某地区的实际电网的算例分析,仿真结果表明,天气状况和隐性故障对输电线路的可靠性有着不可忽视的影响。
A complex reliability analysis method was presented based on meteorology model of wind speed and rainfall rate, and multiple factors as power line flow and the hidden failure rate were considered. The classical Monte Carlo simulation analysis method was used to simulate the failure randomness of transmission line in ice-snow disaster. The operational reliability analysis has a positive significance for the long-term planning and the short-term operation and dispatch. Case studies based on a real power system in China were conducted and the simulation results showed that weather conditions and hidden failures of protection system can have non-ignorable influence on transmission system reliability.
出处
《能源工程》
2013年第2期17-22,共6页
Energy Engineering
关键词
极端冰雪灾害天气
运行可靠性
蒙特卡罗算法
隐性故障
extreme ice-snow disasters
operational reliability
monte carlo simulation
hidden failure
