信息搜寻的序贯决策模型

Sequential decision model on information searching

在贝叶斯公式的基础上提出了期望后验概率的概念 ,并通过信息搜寻过程中决策的风险损失、期望风险损失的概念 ,给出了在面临信息不完全且信息搜寻需要费用的情况下 ,如何根据风险损失最小化原理来确定是否应继续进行信息的搜寻活动的序贯决策模型 .然后讨论了信息搜寻的两种情况 。

On the basis of Ba yesian Equation and analysis of making a decision in an uncertain situation, th is paper presents the concepts of Expected posterior probability, Risk-losses a nd Expected risk-losses, puts forward the principle to minimize the decision ri sk-losses and proposes a Sequential Decision Model on Information seaching proc ess when the information is incomplete and information searching needs costs. Th en it discusses two information searching schemes and finally it gives an exampl e of information searching process.