基于修正有效性评估的动力系统可靠性预测

Reliability Forecast for Power System Based on Correction Effectiveness Evaluation

引入了基于平均有效性改进系数的无偏估计的可靠性增长预测模型,该模型在引入修正性系数的基础上增加了修正偏差项,弥补了调整法的不足,提高了存在设计改进时可靠性预测模型的准确性,试验证明预测结果是可靠的,能为今后特种车辆动力系统的试验鉴定和改进研制提供理论依据。

The reliability growth forcast model based on the average effectiveness improvement coefficient and unbiased esti- mation was introduced. Based on the correction coefficient, correction deviation was also added to the model, which made up for the disadvantages of adjustment method and improved the accuracy of the reliability forecast model when design modification was needed. The results show that the model is reliable and can provide the theoretical reference for test verification and re- search improvement of special vehicle power system in the future.