风险模糊分析法

Fuzziness Analysis Method for Risk

首先根据风险模糊集理论的不同风险内涵 ,介绍了三种不同的风险模糊分析方法。然后通过一个武器装备的简化风险分析示例 ,对风险模糊综合评判法在风险分析过程中的基本应用做了初步讨论 ,从而揭示出风险模糊现象的有限范围特征及其定性与定量相结合的风险分析方法。该方法便于将风险的模糊性、不确定性和随机性定量化。

This paper firstly introduces three methods of risk fuzziness analysis according to different risk aspects of risk fuzziness theory. Then an initial study on the basic application of risk fuzziness comprehensive evaluation method in the course of risk analysis is made through a simply risk analysis example about weapon. And the limited range characteristics of risk fuzziness event and risk analysis methods of combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis are discovered. It is convenient to quantity the fuzziness, indefinitiveness and randomicity of risk by using this method.