基于时间序列分析的可燃物含水率预测模型

Prediction Model of Forest Fuel Moisture Based on Time Series Analysis

利用时间序列分析理论建立了可燃物含水率变化预测模型,并将气象因子作为干扰因子引入模型,同时根据试验地观测数据,利用回归分析理论对模型的参数进行了估算,检验结果表明:给出的模型准确率达91.7%(相对误差不超过3%),说明该模型可用于预测可燃物含水率变化。

The research was conducted to establish the prediction model of forest fuel moisture by using time series analysis. Me- teorological factors were introduced into the model as interference factors. According to the experimental field of observa- tion data, the model parameters were estimated by regression analysis method. The results show that the model precision is up to 91.7 % （the relative error is less than 3% ）. Therefore, the model can be used to predict forest fuel moisture.