中国区域全要素二氧化碳排放绩效及收敛性分析

Total-factor CO_2 emission performance and the convergence hypothesis in China

在全要素框架下,采用基于松弛变量测度的DEA模型,构造全要素CO_2排放绩效指标(TFCPI),评价了1997-2009年我国29个省市的CO_2排放绩效及其减排潜力,并分析了我国整体及东部、中部、西部和东北四大区域CO_2排放绩效的差异变化.结果表明,我国整体的CO_2排放绩效水平持续提高,但地区差异显著,呈现了由东南沿海向西北内陆递减的分布特征.我国整体和四大区域的CO_2排放绩效皆有显著的绝对收敛和条件收敛的趋势.河北、河南、山东、内蒙古、山西、安徽和辽宁是中国CO_2减排潜力最大的省份.

Under a total-factor framework, this paper constructs an SBM-DEA model and an index of total- factor CO2 emission performance （TFCPI） to investigate the CO2 emission performances and potential CO2 emission reductions of 29 provinces in China during 1997---2009. Then, this paper respectively analyzes the change in regional disparities of CO2 emission performances for the east, middle, west, northeast part of China, and the national level. The results show that China has experienced a continuing increase in CO2 emission performance during the sample period. However, the regional disparities are apparently declining from the southeast coastal areas to the northwest inland areas. There are both absolute and conditional convergence in the east, middle, west, northeast, and the national level. Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Anhui and Liaoning have the most potentials in CO2 emission reductions in China.