新疆阿克苏河径流变化特征分析

Feature of change analysis of annual runoff in the Aksu River of Xinjiang

根据阿克苏河1957—2010年的年径流量监测数据,采用线性回归模型,对年径流量时间序列变化趋势进行分析及预测,并在此基础上采用Mann-Kendall法和滑动t检验法对其突变点进行检验,最后运用方差分析外推法对阿克苏河年径流进行周期分析。结果显示:近54年来,阿克苏河沿河道自上而下两个水文站的年径流量均表现出递增的变化趋势,且具有很强的一致性,曲线变化趋势吻合度很高。回归模型分析表明,对两个水文站年径流量的时间序列数据进行拟合的结果显示,实测值和拟合值的差异较小,变差系数与极值比都较小,有利于径流资源的合理开发利用。

Based on the hydrological data in the Aksu River from 1957 to 2010, the change trend and catastrophe point of annual runoff are examined in this study area. The change trend and future runoff change in the Aksu River are tested and predicted by linear regression model, catastrophe point of annual runoff is tested by using Mann- Kendall and moving t-test technique. Finally, hydrologic cycle is analyzed by use of variance analysis extrapolation method. The results show that annual runoff in the Aksu River has increased significantly in recent 54 years. With the passage of time, the future tendency will continue to increase, and the upward trend will be significant. The analysis on catastrophe point shows that the mutation year of the two hydrological station were begun in 1995 year. Cycle analysis shows that, Aksu River display the main cycle of 23 years.