西沟尾矿泥石流危险范围及短期灾变时序预测

Prediction of Risk Range and Short-term Catastrophic Timing for Tailings Debris Flow in West Ditch

概述了泥石流危险性评价和危险范围预测的研究现状。分析了西沟尾矿泥石流的孕灾环境地质背景,基于泥石流预测模型对泥石流危险范围进行预测评价,得出基于泥石流模型实验建立的预测模型适合于尾矿泥石流危险范围的预测。构建了灰色系统灾变预测模型,并对近期泥石流灾害的灾变时间序列进行预测,为尾矿泥石流灾害评价及防治减灾提供了重要依据。

The main research achievements in the area of risk assessment, hazardous dimension, and catastrophic prediction of debris flow are reviewed and summarized. The environmental geological condition of tailings debris flow in west ditch is introduced by the method of field survey and local observation. By taking use of the experiment model established based on 31 sets of debris flow experiment data, the hazardous dimension of debris flow is predicted, and the maximum accumulation length and area in West Ditch is obtained, comparing with the results of field investigation, it could be concluded that the experiment model method is more suitable for predicting the hazardous dimension of tailings debris flow. The gray system forecast model is used to predict the recently disaster time sequence, the credibility is good enough as contrasted with the monitor result, it is able to provide a reference for the risk assessment and disaster mitigation of debris flow. It is also able to provide new ideas for the disaster prevention and mitigation assessment caused by tailings debris flow.