地方政府负债能力及债务风险研究

A Study on the Debt Capacity and Debt Risk of Local Government

本文基于地方政府预期偿债能力构建均衡负债模型，以H省W市JK区作为数值算例进行分析，测算出三种经济增速情景下2012～2015年该地方政府的负债能力，并建立债务风险指标体系对2008—2012年间JK区政府的债务风险进行判别。研究认为，地方政府负债能力主要取决于财政收入增量、地区生产总值，即债务规模应该与社会发展程度以及地方经济承载能力相适应。同时，分析也表明，JK区政府债务风险总体呈下降趋势，当前债务规模在其负债能力范围之内。本文为地方政府负债能力的量化研究提供了一套方法，即根据地方政府预期偿债资金来源分析其当前及未来一定时期内的负债能力，同时构建了债务风险指标体系并提供参考预警线，为地方政府债务管理提供依据。

The Local government debt has accumulated rapidly in recent years, the government of China launched 4 trillion investment plans to deal with the debt crisis in 2009, most of the funding is financed through the investment and financing platform ,which has not been classified to government debt but paying ability depends on local government revenue. With background of the current economic structure in China, fund demand of the infra- structure construction continues to expand, but most of local governments have not established the mechanism of debt management, thus it may lead to short-term risk and long-term risk in borrowing behaviors. For short-term risk, it would like to weaken local financial resilience and increase the bank＇s bad debt; for long-term risk, it would like to weaken the ability of government＇s macroeconomic regulation and have negative impacts on the country＇s financial stability and economic security. In the context of budget deficit accumulated largely and rapidly in China, the debt risk has emerged increasingly, potential risks is significant in the future. In this paper, we establish General Equilibrium Debt Model on the basis of analyzing expected debt-paying abili- ty. It analyzes the debt capacity of local government in current and the future time through discounting of future cash flows ,combining the regional sustainable development strategy and the principle of optimizing resource allocation, guiding an equilibrium between debt scale and debt-paying ability, so that the size of the debt correspond to the social development, as well as local economic carrying capacity. The model consists of two categories, the I type consider the local government debt size is no longer expanding in the future, assuming without new debt due to lack of construction funds during the entire repayment period, but considering the form of refinancing for old debt, so that achieving an in- finite continuation of the debt maturity. The II type is improved on the basis of the I type,it suppose debt repayment can not continue indefinitely, and the form of refinancing for old debt not allowed by rule, It can not raise the local government＇s debt capacity in the long run. For analyzing local government debt capacity, we should focus on the gen- eral budgetary revenue and operating financial assets＇ return,rather than refinance form for the debt rollover. For empirical analyzing local geverument＇ s debt capacity and the debt risk, we take JK local government data as a numerical analysis. First, it is assuming three growth scenarios of GDP and fiscal revenue that is based on eco- nomic growth during lase 16 years and development planning in the future,and analyzing the expected debt-paying ability based on the fiscal revenue increment in the next decade, so that estimates the debt capacity for the three dif- ferent scenarios from 2012 to 2015. Then ,we establish a debt risk early warning system and provide reference to the warning lines, the early warning indicators consists of the ratio debt to GDP, the ratio debt to revenue, the ratio debt service to revenue, the new debt to revenue increment, dependence degree of debt. The results show that the JK local government debt risk is in downward trend, the current size of the debt within its debt capacity. For three different GDP growth scenarios, the debt capacity of JK local 12. 70 billion yuan in 2012. The current size of debt is government is 3. 172 billion yuan, 20.60 billion yuan and less than its debt capacity, even if for the growth rate of GDP and government revenue keeps lower level in the third scenario, it can meet debt service. This paper provides a quantitative way to study of debt capacity of local government, according to the sources of expected cash flows in current and the future time. Moreover, we establish the risk indictor system and provide a ref- erence warning line. As we all known, the management of the local government ask for research of borrowing ability and debt risk, so that constraints of local government debt effectively. Specifically, it needs to establish mechanism of sustainable growth of the local fiscal under the conditions of the open economy, to improve of the debt service re- serve system, and to disclose the information of government debt timingly and accurately. For JK local government, the debt risk is more prominent in the period of 2008-2009, then decline to a low level in 2010. However,the debt is paying intensively in 2011, it lead to a significant fiscal expenditure pressure. Thus, government borrowing should be noted that the debt maturity distribution, the short-term solvency risk can be avoid by schedule within moderate range. taking a reasonable repayment