我国文化产业对经济增长的影响路径——基于PLS模型的验证

The Influence Path From the Culture Industry in Our Country to the Economic Growth——Based on the PLS Model Validation

文化产业作为新兴产业,其与经济增长关系问题备受关注,目前相关研究缺乏从路径角度分析文化产业对经济增长影响的深层次问题探讨。本文基于PLS模型,构建文化产业对经济增长的影响路径模型,选取我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的数据分析文化产业对经济增长的影响路径及效用。结果表明,我国文化产业对经济增长贡献体现在其引致效用上,文化产业既可直接促进经济增长,又可以通过影响人力资本积累及技术创新作用于经济增长,揭示了文化产业对经济增长的潜在作用。本文结论对完整理解文化产业对经济增长影响并推动其成为国民经济支柱性产业有重要意义。

As an emerging industry, the culture industry becomes one of the most promising industries in our country, due to its huge market potential, strong development momentum and broad prospect. Premier Wen jiabao puts forward that developing the culture industry, fostering new cultural formats and promoting the culture industry to the pillar industry of national economy are important to the future economic growth in the conference. At this background , the relationship between the culture industry and the economic growth has been paid much attention. At present, the related research on the influence between the culture industry and the economic growth is based on the direct effect utility and lack of path analysis and some other deep problems. So it＇s important and essential to research the influence path from the culture industry to the economic growth, and it＇ s undoubtedly an important and necessary subject in today＇s economic research. This paper based on the PLS by the Smart-PLS software （design, path model, which was put forward by Wold in 1982 and 1985 and was supported ted by the university of Hamburg, Germany）, selecting the data from our country＇ s 31 provinces （autonomous region, municipality directly under the Central government）, constructing the influence path model from the culture industry to the economic growth, and analyzing the influence path and utility. The results suggest that the culture industry＇ s contribution to the economic is embodied in its cause utility; the culture in- dustry can influence the economic growth directly, and can also indirectly affect the economic growth by human cap- ital＇ s accumulation and the technology innovation, revealing the potential function from the culture industry to the economic growth. The conclusion is important to understand the influence from the culture industry to the economic growth and can promote the culture industry to the backbone industry and pillar industry of the national economy. This paper＇ s conclusions help to support the view that our country should put the culture industry as one of the pillar industries, and that we should pay much attention to the human capital accumulation and technology innova- tion. In the long run, government should cultivate and introduce the innovation talents, planning talents, foreign-o- riented talents and the technology talents, and hence play the effects of talents on the economic growth. So educa- tion should be put in the first place. The national and provincial governments must do a good job in technical inno- vation. For example, they should accelerate the technology innovation from the support of technology, capital and talents. Besides, governments can publish the relevant policy to encourage the technology innovation, raise the en- thusiasm of technology innovation, cultivate the technology innovation talents, and put technology innovation as the key emphasis in daily life, so as to promote the economic growth. This paper presents the quantitative research results from a new angle, it＇ s innovative. But we also have some limitations. Structural equation model, for example, we only select the latent variables who has closely relationship with the culture industry to join the model, without joining the latent variables who has little relationship or the data is difficult to gain. Therefore, the comprehensive index system of the model maybe not comprehensive, this is the future research focus. In addition, we only select the datum of 31 provinces （autonomous region, municipality di- rectly under the Central government） to obtain the total utility level, but we haven＇ t done the research regionally, because the regional differences exist apparently in our country, so this is also the research priorities in the future.