基于可靠度理论的海工混凝土结构寿命预测

Life Prediction of the Marine Concrete Structure Based on the Reliability Theory

对相关试验研究成果和工程调研数据进行统计分析,讨论了氯离子扩散的影响因素以及海工混凝土结构耐久性寿命的概率特性。结果表明,混凝土保护层厚度、临界氯离子浓度、初始氯离子浓度、表面氯离子浓度、氯离子扩散系数以及衰减指数均服从正态分布,海洋环境下混凝土结构的耐久性寿命服从Weibull分布。在此基础上,采用相应的失效准则,建立了基于可靠度理论的混凝土结构氯离子侵蚀耐久寿命预测模型,并对模型进行了工程验证,预测结果较好地反映了工程实际状况。

The statistical analysis of the results of experimental and proiects research were carried out, the probagilistic characteristics of the influence factors of chloride ion diffusion and the service life of marine concrete structures were dis- cussed. The results show that the thickness of the protective layer, the critical chloride ion concentration, the initial chlo- ride ion concentration, the surface chloride ion concentration, chloride ion diffusion coefficient and attenuation index fol- low the normal distribution. And the service life of marine concrete structures follow the Weibull distribution. The appro- priate failure criteria was selected, and the durability life prediction of concrete structure based on the regulated reliability index under chloride environment was established. The actual situation of the project could be better reflected by the pred- ication.