社会预期与政策干预对经济风险形成的作用机理研究

Study on Risk Forming Mechanism from Social Expectation and Policy Intervention

本文着重研究了社会预期和政策干预对经济风险形成的作用机理、作用路径、应对方式、基本特征、相互关系。将非理性预期按照行为主体分为社会大众的非理性预期和利益集团的利用操纵两类,它们都会诱发波动的加剧和波及范围的扩张。有效的政策干预通过对波动源作用的抑制、对非理性预期的引导和对利益集团利用操纵的限制打击等手段,起到防范风险的作用。在政策缺失或干预不当的条件下,则会加剧非理性预期和利益集团的炒作、操纵,诱发"共振",导致风险的发生。政府、社会大众和利益集团之间的关系是博弈关系,政府必须注重策略的运用,重点扼制利益集团的利用操纵。

This paper mainly studies on the mechanism,function route,coping style,basic characters,and mutual relationship of economic risk forming from social expectation and policy intervention.Actually,irrational expectation can be divided into public irrational expectation and interest group manipulation according to behavior body.Both of them could aggravate the economic fluctuation and its affected area.In fact,effected policy intervention can prevent risks through control of fluctuation source,guide of irrational expectation and restriction of interest group manipulation.However,when the policy intervention is not enough or improper intervention is used,that definitely will aggravate the irrational expectation and interest group manipulation.As a result,resonance generates and risks occur.Obviously,the relationship among government,the public and interest groups can be taken as chess.Government needs to pay great attention to policy intervention,with focus especially on the restriction of interest group manipulation.