碳强度俱乐部收敛性:理论与证据——兼论中国碳强度降低目标的合理性和可行性

The Club Convergence of Carbon Intensity:Theoretical Model and Evidence in China——On the Rationality and Feasibility for the Target of Reducing Carbon Intensity

本文构建碳强度俱乐部收敛模型,利用我国1990-2008年的相关数据,对碳强度俱乐部收敛性及其影响因素进行了实证研究,结果显示:(1)我国碳强度存在高、中和低三个收敛俱乐部;(2)工业化水平和城市化水平的提高、产业结构和能源消费结构的优化调整、能源价格的变动、环境规制政策和产权制度的实施等均有助于碳强度的收敛和降低。清洁技术水平和能源效率没有起到有效作用,这是因为我国现有清洁技术存量不足和质量不高,能源效率与环境规制政策和产权制度存在很大关联;(3)总体而言,除一些省域外,我国碳强度到2020年降低40%-45%目标能够实现,这表明中国碳强度约束性目标具有合理性和可行性,同时有一定难度。

In this paper,the club convergence model of carbon intensity is constructed and the club convergence of carbon intensity and its influencing factors are empirically studied using data of 1990-2008 in China.The results show that：（1）there exist high,middle,and low convergence clubs of carbon intensity significantly;（2） the raise of level of industrialization and urbanization,the adjustment of energy consumption structure and industrial structure,changes in energy prices,the implementation of environmental regulations policies and the system of property rights help club convergence and reduce the carbon intensity.Clean technology and energy efficiency do not play an effective role,because the lack of existing stock of clean technology and lower quality,while energy efficiency is affected by environmental regulation policy and property rights system;and（3） overall,with the exception of some provinces,the target of carbon intensity reduced by 40%-45% until 2020 can be achieved in China,suggesting that binding target of China’s carbon intensity is reasonable and feasible,while there is a certain degree of difficulty.