北京能源消费排放CO_2增量的分解研究——基于IDA法的LMDI技术分析

An empirical analysis of the increment of CO_2 emission from energy consumption in Beijing: Based on LMDI technique of IDA method

采用IDA法的LMDI技术,全面实证研究了北京1995-2010年经济部门和生活消费因能源消耗排放二氧化碳增长的驱动因素,分析导致6大产业部门和生活消费的碳排放增量的各自效应。结论表明:拉动产业部门碳排放量增长的决定性因素是经济规模扩大,而促使碳排放减少的主要因素是能源强度降低,产业结构调整和能耗结构变化对产业碳排放变动的贡献较低;就行业而言,工业的碳减排成果最显著,其他服务业及交通运输、仓储与邮政业的增量明显;人口规模的持续扩大是导致生活消费碳排放量增加的主因,人均能耗强度加大紧随其后,但碳排放系数和生活能耗结构的变化却对减碳贡献不大。最后,针对上述分析结果,提出了北京未来节能减碳的简明政策建议。

Based on increment decomposition of the Log-Mean Divisia Index （LMDI）, an empirical analysis is conducted on the driving factors of the increment of carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption in 6 industrial sectors and from households in Beijing from 1995 to 2010. The results are shown as following： the determining factor that affects the increase of CO2 emission is the expansion of industrial scales; the dominant factor to reduce CO2 emission is the reduction of energy consumption intensity; the changes of the structure of industry and energy consumption have relatively less contribution to CO2 emission change. With regard to industrial sectors, the industrial carbon emissions have shown the most significant reduction,while carbon emissions in other sectors, such as services, transportation,storage and postal service have clearly increased. The continuing expansion of population scales is the main cause of the increase of households＇ carbon emissions, followed by per capita energy consumption intensity; carbon emissions coefficients and change in the struc^tre of energy consumption in our daily lives have little contribution to the reduction of carbon emissions. Finally, based on the above analysis, the paper puts forward concise proposals for energy saving and reduction of carbon emissions in the future in Beijing.