辽宁省农民工转移规律的实证研究

Empirical Research on the Transfer Patterns of Migrant Workers in Liaoning Province

农民工流动和转移关系到我国工业化进程和城市就业管理的诸多问题。基于二元经济转换及农村剩余劳动力转移理论,根据在昌图县等地的大规模调研数据,对辽宁省农民工转移的特点和规律进行了实证研究。通过对数据的回归分析,得到了辽宁省外出农民工转移规律,构建了二元经济结构下辽宁劳动力流动和收入的关系模型。运用ARMA模型计量方法,预测出辽宁省未来外出农民工数量将逐年增加,但增速趋于平稳。

Migrant workers＇ flow and transfer is related to such issues as China＇s industrialization and urban employment management. Based on the theories of dual economic transformation and surplus rural labor transfer, and the massive survey data of Changtu County and other places in Liaoning Province, an empirical research was conducted on the characteristics and patterns of labor force transfer. Through the regression analysis of data, the transfer patterns of Liaoning migrant workers were obtained, and the relationship model of Liaoning labor transfer and income in the dual economic structure was constructed. Using ARMA model, it was estimated that the number of Liaoning migrant workers will increase yearly but the growth rate tends to be stable.