中国区域经济时空演变的加权空间马尔可夫链分析

Spatial-temporal Evolution Analysis of China’s Regional Economy with Weighted Spatial Markov Chain Approach

依据中国区域经济的空间依赖性和时间自相关性,将区域经济增长的时间特征和空间特征结合起来,在传统马尔可夫链中引入空间效应,并利用区域经济的自相关系数和局部Moran’s I指数作为时空权重加以校正,即构建了加权空间马尔可夫链,研究中国区域经济增长过程中的时空动态演变特征。结果表明,中国区域经济增长具有空间相关性和集聚分布特征,自改革开放以来一直存在"俱乐部趋同"现象;地理背景对经济类型转移具有显著影响,发达区域背景对经济增长具有辐射、促进作用,而欠发达区域背景对经济增长具有制约、减缓作用;区域经济类型不会发生明显的跃迁,区域背景对一个地区经济增长类型向上和向下转移概率的影响是不对称的。对加权空间马尔可夫链统计特征进行检验时发现,以中等发达地区为邻时,区域经济变迁的潜力最大,平均3—5年就能出现经济类型的转变。加权空间马尔可夫链为区域经济类型的转变和空间集聚格局的形成提供了一种新视角的解释。

Based on the spatial dependence and the time autocorrelation of China＇s regional economy, combining time characteristics and spatial characteristics of the regional economic growth, this paper introduces space relationship into traditional Markov chain and corrects using autoeorrelation coefficient and local Moran＇s I index of the regional economic as the spatial-temporal weights, that is, constructs weighted spatial Markov chain to analyze spatial and temporal evolution of regional economic. The results show that China＇s economic growth appears to distribution features of spatial autocorrelation and agglomeration, and the process of regional convergence has been globally characterized by ＂convergence clubs＂ since 1978.The geographical background has a significant impact on transitions of the economic type, that is, when regions are surrounded by developed regions, there is radiated, promoting influence on economic growth. While economic growth of regions is constrained by less developed regions being surrounded. Transition of regional economic type isn＇t obvious, and the influence of regional background on up and down state transition of regional economic growth type is asymmetric. Testing statistical characteristics of the weighted spatial Markov chain, this paper finds that potential of regional economic change is the biggest when surrounded by medium-developed regions, and economic type of the region will transform in 3-5 years on average. Weighted spatial Markov chain provides a new perspective of transition of regional economic type and formation of spatial agglomeration pattern.