运用概率理论进行投标报价决策的探讨

A probe into decision of bidding offer by utilizing probability theory

推导通用型最佳报价公式,运用概率理论关于多维随机变量分布函数和数字特征的理论,建立离散型分布函数模型,根据投标报价决策时所涉及的各项因素变量取值及其概率,推算出最佳报价的取值范围及该范围内具体取值相应的概率,从而为决策者提供科学、准确的决策依据。通过实例模拟决策验证,实际最佳报价值均在推算取值范围之内,且相应概率较高。此方法对投标报价决策具有一定的参考价值。

Introducing universal optimum offer formula and applied with probability theory on distribution function of multiple random variables and the theory of digital characteristics to set - up discrete distribution function model. Based on variable sampling process of every factor and its probability related to the decision at the time of offer, working out sampling process scope of optimum offer and relative probability of specific sampling process in the scope so as to provide scientific and correct basis for decision - makers. After simulation test and verification, the actual optimum offer value is in the calculation sampling process scope and the relative probability is higher. This method has certain reference value for decision making of bidding offer.