东亚“大国协调”:构建基础与路径选择

Constructing a Concert of Powers in East Asia:Normative,Realistic Foundation and Path Selection

大国协调已成为构建东亚区域新型大国关系一种新的制度安排。从规范上看,大国协调所拥有的一致性、合法性、责任性、包容性、自我克制等共有规范非常适合于东亚多边安全机制的"合作安全"理念、"东盟方式"决策和"开放的区域主义"取向。从现实条件看,东亚地缘政治生态中凸显的大国特性和热点问题的有效解决需要大国协调,而东亚区域大国权力相对均衡化有利于大国协调。从经验上看,柬埔寨问题的和平解决和朝核问题"六方会谈"提供了在与大国无直接关涉的传统安全问题上在次区域启动大国协调的可行路径。新的东亚大国协调有三种路径选择,即"软安全"导向的"多边协调"、综合安全导向的"双边协调"和"多边协调"。东亚峰会和现有的大国双边战略对话机制分别是前两种路径可利用的制度资产。第三种路径的理想状态是一种独立的安全机制,旨在应对重大的区域冲突和危机。在实际中,三种路径可以交叉重叠、并行运作,构成一种双边与多边互动的"大国协调网络",由此为东亚区域安全治理提供一种稳固而有效的机制。

In the current international context,the concert of powers has become an important institutional arrangement to build a new type of relations between great powers in East Asia.From a normative perspective,it adopts conference diplomacy,mutual consultation and consensus decision-making procedures and a series of specific shared rules and norms which include consistency,legitimacy,accountability,inclusiveness and self-restraint.In general,the normative framework is very suitable for the East Asi-an multilateral security mechanism,which includes cooperative security concept,the ASEAN Way decision procedure,and open regionalism orientation.In view of realistic conditions,the power structure in East Asian geopolitical ecology and the effective settlement of hotspot issues necessitate the concert of powers.Empirically,the peaceful resolution of the Cambodian Problem and the Six Party Talks on the DPRK nuclear issue provide a feasible path to solve the traditional security issues indirectly related with great powers in East Asian sub-regions(eg.Southeast Asia or Northeast Asia)through the concert of powers.There are three alternative paths to a new concert of powers in East Asia.These include multilateral concert of powers on soft security(vs.nontraditional security),bilateral concert of powers and multilateral concert of powers on comprehensive security.The ideal state of the third path is that an independent security mechanism is set up to deal with major regional conflicts and other crises.In practice,the three paths can be overlapping or parallel,and constitute a bilateral and multilateral network of concert of powers;thus,it provides a stable and effective mechanism for the regional security governance in East Asia.