极值理论在台湾地区地震趋势预测中的应用

Extreme-Value Theory Application Research about Earthquake Tendency Prediction in Taiwan

利用陈培善等人对极值理论修改后的极值分布函数模型对1971-01～2012-06台湾地区的地震资料进行统计分析。根据地震活动和地震地质构造特征划分区域、确定边界,单位时间的选取由其地震发生的频度和能量来确定,单位时间内最小与最大地震的确定分别考虑相关区域内台网的监控能力以及删除余震后的实际情况,根据修正后的极值理论统计计算出相应地震的复发周期及在未来一定时间内可能发生相应地震的次数与发震概率,并对有关结果进行模型检验和映震能力分析,同时与利用M-T图及震级与G-R关系获取的M≥7.0级地震的复发周期进行比较。

A statistical study is made by the data of earthquakes in Taiwan from Jan.1971 to Jun.2012 which using the distribution function of extreme values modified by Peishan Chen et al. Zoning by the earthquake activity determined by the frequency and and the characteritics of geological structural, the unit time is energy of earthquake, then minimum earthquake magnitude and maximum in unit time is determined ability and the earthquake catalogue by considering the regional earthquake network monitoring deleted aftershocks, based on the modified extreme values theory, the recurrence period in the region was calculated, and the theoretical frequencies and the probability of various earthquakes in the future was estimated. Then, checking the model and analyzing the capability reflecting of M≥7.0 earthquake which were earthquake. The result was compared to the recurrence periods acquired by M-T diagram and G-R relationshin.