基于加权影响力系数模型的区域产业结构分析——以新疆为例

Regional industrial structure analysis based on weighted influence coefficient model:A case of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China

传统的产业结构分析一般将影响力因子作为优势产业选择的积极因素。但在实际中,对于处于衰退阶段的产业,较大的影响力往往意味着对区域经济发展的巨大阻滞作用。利用部门增加值进行加权的加权影响力系数的概念和方法,并结合产业增长率提出了对各产业部门发展状况进行分析的象限分析模型。运用所提出的模型,利用新疆42部门投入产出表对新疆产业发展现状进行了实证分析。结果表明:新疆石油天然气开采、化学工业等5个产业部门为强影响力-高增长速度部门,对国民经济拉动动作用明显;农林牧渔、建筑等4个产业部门为强影响力-低增长速度部门,对国民经济增长有较大的阻滞作用,有可能带来一系列的经济社会问题;仪器仪表及文化用品制造、通信设备与计算机制造等12个产业部门为低影响力-高增长速度部门,具有培育成为主导产业的潜力。

Traditional industrial structure analysis usually regards influence coefficient as a positive factor in choice of leading industry. However for industrial sectors in a recession, higher influence coefficient often means severe ob struction to the development of regional economy and awkward social problem. Moreover influence coefficient could not measure practical impact of a certain industry accurately due to the neglecting of scale of industry. Thus the fac tor of influence coefficient should be treated cautiously. New method is discussed to weight influence coefficient by proportion of added value of industrial sector in regional economy by which actual influence of industry on total economy could be measured more accurately. Base on it a modeling is introduced to analyze each sector of regional industry combined by both weighed influence coefficients and speed of development with the method of quadrants. Thus the modeling could measure the impact of both influence and development rate of industries. A case study of Xinjiang Autonomous Uygur Region is taken using 42 sector inputoutput table of Xinjiang. Results show that 5 in dustrial sectors including Extraction of Petroleum and Natural Gas and Raw Chemical Material and Chemical Prod ucts are high influencehigh growth industries. These sectors have stronger driving effects to regional economy. 4 in dustrial sectors including agriculture and construction are high influencelow growth industries. These sectors have severe obstruction to regional economy and likely to cause series of socialeconomic problems. 12 industrial sectors including Manufacture of Telecom Equipment, Computer and Other Electronic Equipment are low influencehigh growth industries. These industries are expected to become new leading industries. The new modeling of industrial analysis overcomes disadvantages of traditional methods of influence coefficients. The application in industrial in struction of Xinjiang gives conceive conclusions and valuable advises. It proves the modeling is effective and opera ble. Industrial construction is a complex system. The evaluation to industrial construction refers not only added val ues but also benefit per unit of output, labor payment, employment rate and so on. Advanced studies should be done to improve the modeling and therefore to measure efficient of industrial construction accurately.