基于贝叶斯网络的舰用汽轮滑油泵可靠性定量分析

Quantitative Reliability Analysis of the Steam Turbine Pump in Naval Lubricating Oil Systems Based on Bayesian Networks

针对舰用主滑油系统汽轮滑油泵装置,系统研究其结构功能关系及典型的故障模式。基于系统3种典型故障的FTA模型,建立相应的贝叶斯网络模型进行可靠性定量分析。考虑到系统中存在的固有不确定性因素,对模型的条件概率进行合理修正,提高可靠性分析的准确性。运用贝叶斯网络精确推理算法,得出系统可靠性指标和模型中底事件的概率重要度。根据计算结果,分析得到影响系统可靠性较大的关键部件,这些部件需要加强备份和重点监控。

A systematical research on the steam turbine pump in naval lubricating oil systems is conduct- ed. Particularly, the structure and functional relationship between different components of the system, as well as its typical failure modes are investigated. In order to test the reliability of the system, a Bayesian Network is established based on the FTA model of three typical failure modes. Then, the conditional proba- bility table is corrected by considering the inherent uncertainties within the system. This modification im- proves the accuracy of the quantitative reliability analysis. Also, the reliability of the system and the impor- tance of root nodes are derived with the precise inference algorithm. The results reveal several critical com- ponents that need regular backups and focus monitoring. In brief, the proposed method can be employed to improve the general reliability of the system.