未观测金融对货币供应量的影响分析

Impact of Non-observed Finance on Money Supply

利用1991—2011年的经济数据,测算出未观测金融规模,并进一步分析了未观测金融对货币供应量的影响。实证结果显示:未观测金融规模对货币供应量有着显著的影响;未观测金融规模扩大倒逼货币供给增加;未观测金融可以减轻货币供给增发的压力。上述结论表明,政府在制定货币政策时应重视未观测金融对货币供应量的影响。

Using the economic data during the years from 1991 to 2011 ,this paper calculates the scale of Non-observed Fi- nance （NOF）. Furthermore, it analyzes the impact of NOF on money supply. The empirical analysis shows that NOF has a sig- nificant influence on money supply, the increase in money supply is forced by NOF, and NOF can help relieve the pressure on monetary authority to issue the currency. These results demonstrate that the monetary authority should attach the importance to the impact of NOF on money supply while making the monetary policy.