国际原油价格与我国原油进口量关系研究——基于系统思考与格兰杰因果检验

Study on the Relation between International Crude Oil Prices and China's Oil Imports——An Analysis based on System Thinking and Granger Causality Tests

过去近20年来,中国原油进口量不断攀升,同时国际原油价格总体上也呈增长态势。于是国际上出现了中国进口原油推高国际原油价格的说法。为此,利用系统思考方法构建了国际原油价格影响的因果反馈模型,系统分析了国际原油价格的诸多影响因素及其因果反馈环路及反馈机制,识别了关键影响因素及主导反馈结构;进一步建立了格兰杰因果检验模型对国际原油价格与中国原油进口量的实际数据进行分析,研究两者之间的变动和相互影响关系。结果表明,国际原油价格和我国原油进口量之间呈现长期稳定的均衡关系,且存在着从国际原油价格到我国原油进口量的单向因果关系,不能简单将国际原油价格走高的原因归结为我国原油进口量的增加。最后提出了相应的长期和短期应对策略。

Over the past nearly 20 years, China＇s crude oil imports climbed, while overall growth on the international price of crude oil, so China＇s crude imports pushed Gao Guoji appeared on the international crude oil prices. Therefore, using system thinking method to build the international crude oil prices affect the causal feedback model, system analysis of the influencing factors of international crude oil prices and the causal feedback loop and feedback mechanisms, to identify the key influence factors and the dominant feedback structure. Granger causality test model was established to further the international crude oil price and China＇s crude oil imports the actual data analysis, quantitative research is the change between the two and mutual influence relations. Results show that the international crude oil prices and China＇s crude imports between the long-term stable equilibrium relationship, and there are from the international price of crude oil to one-way causal relationship of China＇s crude oil imports, not easy to attribute the cause of the international crude oil prices higher for the increase of China＇s crude oil imports. Finally put forward the corresponding strategies to respond to the long-term and short-term.