风险缓冲体系构建研究——基于缓冲理论的视角

Research on the Structuring Risk Buffer System——Based on the Perspective of Buffer Theory

借鉴化学缓冲理论和现代应急管理技术,构建风险缓冲对模型,对企业发展过程中的主要风险,依据FTA(事故树分析)、ETA(事件树分析)方法和思路,研究风险发生的原因、过程和控制规律。根据该原理,可以构建一系列"风险缓冲对"体系和建立基于作用方向相反和作用效果相抵的风险缓冲对,来实现对特定风险的消除目标,或最大限度减缓意外风险对企业的冲击和破坏。同样,也可以对需要控制的目标风险,进行一系列风险结构分解。在此基础上,根据因果关系,对分解后的这些子风险通过风险筛选、风险屏蔽、斩断风险传导链条等手段主动控制风险。还可以通过构建完整的契约体系锁定这些子风险,从源头上着手控制子风险,消除导致风险后果发生的条件等措施,达到构建风险缓冲体系、主动管理风险、有效控制风险的目的。为提高企业运行过程中的风险承受能力和主动管理风险提出了一种风险缓冲对思路。

From the chemical buffer theory and modern emergency management technology,the model of risk buffer pair is set up,so as to study the risk of cause,development process and controlling law by the method of FTA and ETA.A series of ＂risk buffer-pairs＂can be built,which function is opposite and effect is offset by the law,in order to elimination the risks,or minimize destruction from it.Similarly,the objective risk can be decomposed into a series of risks from its structure.On this basis,according to the causal relationship,the risk can be controlled by the way of dealing with these sub-risks,including screening risk,shield risk,cutting the risk of conduction chain etc.The sub-risk Can be also locked down by building contract system and controlled from the source to eliminate the risk＇ conditions,so as to reached the purposes that including building risk buffer system,managing risk proactively and controlling risk effectively.By the above research work,a risk buffer of ideas that managing risk proactively and improving the risk-bearing capacity of the enterprise has been made.