改革开放以来制造业变迁对我国经济增长影响的动态效应研究

Research on the Dynamic Effect Caused by the Manufacturing Industry Change to China’s Economic Growth since the Reform and Opening

本文根据1978～2011年的样本数据,运用广义最小二乘法,对我国制造业变迁与经济增长之间的动态效应进行了定量分析。研究结果表明:所有产业对经济增长变动均具有同向变动关系,但制造产业变动对经济增长的拉动效应最大;制造业产业、第三产业对经济增长变动具有显著的动态效应;因此,要加快发展现代农业,改造提升制造业,营造环境推动服务业大发展;防范第三产业比重过大和以制造业为主体的第二产业发展不足导致的"产业空心化"。

According to the sample data from 1997 to 2011 and using Generalized I.east Squares （GLS）, this paper makes a quantitative analysis on the dynamic effect caused by manufacturing industry change to China＇s economic growth. The results show that all industries have the same direction change relation as the economic growth, but the manufacturing industry has the Maximal pulling effect on it. Besides, manufacturing industry and the tertiary industry have a significant dynamie effect on the economic growth. Therefcxe we should speed up the develolanent of modem agriculture and renovate to upgrage the manufacturing industry and promote the service industry＇s devdopment by creating a suitable environment, and we must guard against the ＂Industry Hollowing＂ caused by excessive proportion of tertiary industry and developing shortage of the secondary industry that the main part of it is manufacturing industry.