基于动态权重的风电功率组合预测方法研究

A Combination Method Research for Wind Power Predication Based on Dynamic Weight

风电功率预测对风电并入电网、电力系统的调度和电网安全稳定运行有着重要的影响。由于风电场发电功率受风速、风向、地理、气象等多方面因素的影响,既具有时间相关性,也具有空间相关性,单一的预测模型往往达不到预期效果。为提高风电场发电功率预测精度,主要针对风电功率预测建立基于动态权重选取得组合模型进行研究,通过该组合模型来对风电场的发电量进行预测,并且应用多个评价指标来对预测结果进行评价,通过对吉林西部某风电场实测数据的预测,验证了模型的有效性。

Wind power prediction for wind power connection with power grid, power system operation and the safe and stable operation of the power grid has an important influence. Due to wind power generating power is affected by wind speed, wind direction, geography, weather and so on, has both the time correlation and the spatial correlation, single forecast model often can not reach the expected effect. In order to improve the wind power generating power prediction accuracy, this article mainly aims at wind power prediction establish combi- nation model research based on the method of dynamic weight. Through the combined model to predict the wind power generation, and the application of multiple evaluation index to evaluate the forecast results, by means of the prediction of real-measured data from some wind farm in the west of Jilin province, it verified the effeteness of the model.