外部有效需求不足与内部有效供给不足——1929～1933年日本宏观经济运行研究

Research on Japan's Macroeconomic Operation from 1929 to 1933

两次世界大战之间,日本的宏观经济运行基本规律是:出口决定进口,进口决定固定资本形成,固定资本形成决定总供给曲线右移的幅度;货币流量决定总需求,总需求和总供给的焦点决定均衡产出和均衡价格。世界经济大萧条期间,日本没有发生经济衰退,只是经济增长幅度变小,价格降幅更大而已。经济增长幅度变小的原因在于世界经济危机背景下外需不足导致的国内有效供给不足,价格下降幅度变大的原因在于日本在错误的时机恢复了金本位制。昭和恐慌期间,日本的财政支出不仅没有增加,受财政收入下降的影响反而减少,高桥财政和罗斯福新政不可同题并论。

The basic rule of Japan＇ s macroeconomic operation between WW I and WW II is that export decides import and the import decides fixed capital formation which then determines the right shift amplitude of the aggregate supply curve, and that money flow decides aggregate demand, the intersection of aggregate demand and aggregate supply defines equilibri ous output and price. In the course of world crisis Japan was just made to slow down its economic growth and reduce greatly its prices, but not get into economic recession. This is because its foreign demand shortage brings about deficiency of domestic supply and that it chose to recover its gold standard system at some improper time. During the Showa Panic period, its finan cial expenditure did not increase but decrease due to its fiscal revenue decline. So we cannot compare its Takahashi Finance to Roosevelt Finance.