英国宏观经济态势的转折点——供给约束型经济向需求约束型经济的转变

Mutation of Macroeconomic Constraint in the UK: The Transition from Supply-Constraint to Demand-Constraint Economy

本文通过对英国早期经济的发展进行宏观经济态势的理论和逻辑分析，试图找出英国由供给约束型经济态势转变为需求约束型经济态势的转折点。之后对其1830～1936年的宏观经济数据进行分析，分别采用传统的最小二乘法与马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗递归法阐明了1830年以后的英国经济，供给受到需求的约束。得出了19世纪30年代英国工业革命的尾声时，英国过渡为需求约束型经济社会的结论，这一结论也符合历史经验。

This article sets out to analyze the early economic and/or macroeconomic development in the UK, in order to find out the turning point of its transition from supply-constraint to demand-constraint economy. Then we analyze, using conventional least square method and Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, the macro-economic data from 1830 to 1936, and show that its supply was restrained by its demand after 1830. In addition, we prove that the UK transformed from supply-constraint to demand-constraint economy at the end of the British industrial revolution in the 1830s. This conclusion also accords with its historical experience.