江淮气旋的气候特征分析

Climate characteristics of Jiang-huai cyclone

利用中央气象台的历史天气图资料对近49 a江淮气旋的发生路径、源地、年发生频数、强度进行统计分析。结果表明:江淮气旋发生频数的年际变化呈下降趋势,生成的强度呈上升趋势;通过小波分析发现江淮气旋的频数有明显的年际、年代际变化周期;以及有显著的月、季变化特征,春季及其每年的4月是江淮气旋出现最为活跃的季节和月份;受地形、下垫面等因素的影响,江淮气旋出现的源地主要集中在大别山及其东北侧、淮河上游及苏皖浙交界处、鄱阳湖这3个区域;江淮气旋的平均路径主要有3条:西北东移、偏南东移和偏北东移,且江淮气旋的移动路径有明显的季节性变化。

By using the historical weather charts during 1961 to 2009 from the Central Meteorological Observatory, the track, origin,frequency,intensity of Jiang-huai cyclones were collected. The results showed that there was a declining trend in decadal variations on frequency of cyclone and a rising trend happened in generated intensity of cyclone. Moreover, the frequency of Jiang-huai cyclone had apparent periodic inter-annual and decadal variations characteristics by the analysis of wavelet, as well as obvious difference from months and seasons. In particular, April and spring were the periods that the Jiang-huai cyclones most favorably occurred. Influenced by topography, underlying surface and other factors, the Jiang-huai cyclone mainly occurred in three regions：Dabie Mountains and its northeast region, upper reaches of Huaihe and Hangzhou Bay, Poyang Lake; there were mainly three paths： from northwest road, north road, south road to eastward. Movever, the moving paths of cyclone had significant seasonal changes.