建设项目全寿命周期成本的CIM风险评估模型

CIM Risk Evaluation of Construction Project Life Cycle Cost

建立风险评价指标体系的基础上,运用控制区间和记忆(CIM)模型,辅以层次分析法,建立建设项目全寿命周期成本(LCC)风险评估模型.选用层次分析法确定建设项目LCC在各阶段的风险权重,运用控制区间和记忆模型计算各阶段次级风险因素的概率分布,对建设项目全寿命周期成本风险做出预测和评价.工程实例分析表明:项目风险集中在较低和低风险层次,低风险的可能性最大;设计阶段风险适中的概率较大,而其余阶段都集中于低风险层次.

Based on building risk evaluation index system, controlled interval and memory （CIM） models and analytical hierarchy process, the life cycle cost （LCC） risk evaluation model was established. The analytical hierarchy process was adopted to determine the weight coefficient of each stage, probability distribution of secondary risk factors in each stage was calculated via CIM, then LCC risk of construction project can be predicted and evaluated. An engineering case analysis shows that project risk focuses on the lower risk level and the low risk level, the low risk probability is maximum; the risk probability is medium in design stage, the risk probability is low in other stages.