人口老龄化与居民消费、经济增长的关联度分析——基于VAR模型的实证分析

Association Analysis of Population Aging, Household Consumption and Economic Growth——A VAR Model-based Empirical Analysis

21世纪以来,中国人口老龄化速度加快,人口年龄结构的变化必然会对社会消费水平和经济发展产生影响。因而,通过构建VAR模型,使用协整检验、Granger因果关系检验和方差分解对人口老龄化、居民消费率和经济增长之间的动态关系进行实证分析具有重要的现实意义。实证结论表明:相对于少儿抚养比,老年抚养比变动对居民消费率和经济增长的影响更大,但老年抚养比变动对经济增长的直接作用比较弱。

The population aging has become faster in China since the 21 st century. Inevitably, the changes of popu- lation age structure have a significant impact on the level of social consumption and economic development. This study makes an empirical analysis on the dynamic relationship between the young and the old dependency ratio, consumption rate and economic growth by using VAR model, cointegration test, Granger causality test and variance decomposition. The conclusion shows that： comparing to the child dependency ratio, the elderly dependency ratio variation has more influence on consumption rate and economic growth. However, the impact of the elderly depend- ency ratio on economic growth is relatively weak.