河北省经济增长与能源消费的相关关系分析

The Relationship between Energy Consumption and GDP in Hebei

河北省高能耗重化工产业对稳定经济增长起到基础性作用,然而,以煤炭为主体的能源消费所带来的能源供应保障问题和环境问题日益突出。借鉴时间序列分析理论,利用Granger因果关系检验法分析了经济增长和能源消费之间的因果关系,并对两变量进行了协整分析,检验其是否存在长期均衡关系,在建立能源消费与经济增长的VAR模型基础上,运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解的方法研究了河北省经济增长对能源消费的影响。

As a big economic province that is marching into a strong economic one, the stable economic development is based on high energy consumption and heavy chemical industries. However, the coal-based energy consumption results in some serious supply problems and the environmental problems. It is necessary to explore the deeper rela- tions between the economic growth and energy consumption of Hebei Province. This study takes Time Series Analy- sis as reference and uses the Granger causality test to analyze the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption, and whether there exists a long-term balanced relationship between economic growth and energy con- sumption is examined by using the co-integration test. On the basis of VAR model of energy consumption and eco- nomic growth, the authors use the methods of impulse response function and Variance Decomposition to study the impact of economic growth on energy consumption of Hebei Province.