基于系统动力学的企业现金流量分析

The Analysis of Enterprise Cash Flow Based on System Dynamic Model

现金流量在企业经营活动中具有重要的作用,目前的财务风险有利润风险和现金流量风险,而大多数文献都集中于采用统计的方法考察企业的利润风险,并没有对影响的传导路径给出明确的解释。运用系统动力学模型,对许继电器股份有限公司的现金流量进行分析。模型以现金流量的变动作为系统设计的出发点,综合分析了企业的经营活动现金流量、投资活动现金流量和筹资活动现金流量,并对财务风险的传导路径进行分析,综合考察企业的财务风险,从而对企业的经营活动进行有效的指导。

Cash flow plays an important role in business operation. Financial risk includes profit risk and cash flow risk. Most of the former literatures focus on using statistical method to survey the profit risk, and have no a clear explanation of the transmitting route. This paper studies the cash flow of Xuji Electric Apparatus Co. Ltd with sys- tem dynamics model. Taking the change of cash flow as the start point, the system dynamics model is used to ana- lyze the cash flows from operating activities, investing activities and financing activities. And we also study the transmitting route of financial risk in order to give an effective guidance to the managers of the enterprise.