以百日咳为例探讨六气、气象与传染性疾病的关联性研究方法

Correlation study among incidence of infectious disease with six-qi and climate:an example on whooping cough

目的:从中医运气学说的角度,探讨传染性疾病的发生和气象的关联性研究方法。方法:选取1970年-1989年共20年百日咳的病例数,与各气象因素(平均气温、平均降水量、平均水汽压、平均风速、平均相对湿度)分别进行单因素相关分析,利用BP神经网络,建立百日咳的气象发病预警模型。结果:北京地区百日咳的高发时间段在三之气(夏季)。单因素相关显示其发病与平均气温、平均降水量、平均水汽压、平均相对湿度均呈正相关。BP神经网络模型的结果显示,平均相对湿度对百日咳发病的影响程度最大。结论:百日咳发病与气温、相对湿度和水汽压等气象因素密切相关。研究气象因素对传染性疾病发病的影响,需选择多种统计学方法进行相关性分析,结合中医运气学说的理论和临床实际进行综合评价。

Objective： To explore the correlation among the incidence of infectious disease with climate from the perspective of yunqi theory in traditional Chinese medicine. Methods： We collected the cases of whooping cough and meteorological data, including average temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure, wind speed and relative humidity, from 1970 to 1989 in Beijing area. All the data were calculated by single-factor correlation analysis. An alarming model was created by BP neural net-work. Results： There was higher whooping cough incidence during summer. The incidence of whooping cough was positive related with average temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure and relative humidity. According to BP neural net work, the average relative humidity had the largest contribution to the incidence of whooping cough. Conclusion： The incidence of whooping cough is closely related with temperature, relative humidity, vapor pressure and so on. Multiple statistics methods are needed to research the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of disease, with the combination of TCM yunqi theory and clinical practice for comprehensive assessment.