基于云理论的流域水污染物总量减排绩效评估

Performance Evaluation of Watershed Water Pollutants Total Emission Reduction Based on Cloud Theory

该文在充分考虑流域水污染物总量减排绩效管理自身特点的前提下,引入能够将不确定性概念的模糊性和随机性有机结合的云理论,并运用基于云理论的云重心评价法对清河流域2005—2007年和2008—2010年2个阶段的水污染物总量减排绩效管理水平进行综合评价和比较分析。结果表明:2008—2010年的清河流域水污染物总量减排绩效管理水平与2005—2007年相比有很大提高,但是距理想状态仍有一定差距。而云重心评价法作为一种处理不确定性和模糊性信息的数学工具,能够合理实现定性概念与定量数据之间的相互转换,对流域水环境管理评价具有较好的适用性。

Being fully considered of the performance evaluation characteristics of watershed water pollutants total emission reduction, the cloud theory which combined the ambiguity and the randomness of uncertainty concept were introduced. Based on cloud theory,the cloud gravity center evaluation methods was proposed in order to evaluate the performance evaluation management level of water pollutants emission reduction of Qinghe basin during 2005-2007 and 2008-2010.The results showed that the performance management level of 2008-2010 were greatly improved than 2005-2007 ,but it also had a big gap to the ideal state.ln addition ,the cloud gravity center evaluation methods as a effective mathematical tool to deal with the uncertainty and ambiguity information could convenient to realize the transformation between qualitative concepts and their quantitative expressions, so that this method was feasibility and effective for the evaluation of water environment management.